In a study of sand piles, (bear with me), scientists Bak and Chen dropped single grains of sand at regular intervals onto one spot. As you can easily imagine, a cone shaped pile of sand developed. The cone would grow in size until one single grain of sand produced a slide of many grains of sand down the side of the cone. As more grains were added, the cone shape would re-establish itself and more landslides would occur. The size of the landslides varied, but every once in a while a particularly large landslide would occur. The size or frequency of the landslides was unrelated to the number of grains of sand, the size of the cone, or if the slide would be a small landslide or a larger collapse. It was impossible to predict.

The point just before a landslide occurred was called “criticality”. If the size or frequency of landslides could not be predicted based on the number of grains dropped, what other factors were involved? Here’s their explanation; 

“The global behaviour of the total pile transcends the behaviour of the individual grains within it. At criticality, every grain is interacting in complex ways with all its neighbours. The motion of one grain on the slope can induce motion in thousands of others.” 

As an example of how this relates to human behaviour, I have always argued that stock market ups and downs are influenced more by social behaviour than economic theory. In a rising market environment, we feel confident in the world around us. We invest, driving prices up and up, until… that one grain of sand starts the landslide. One lucky buyer bought shares of Nortel at the critical price of $124 dollars. The subsequent landslide took the price to .47 cents. 

Here’s my sand-piles-to-humans interpretation of criticality;

The global behaviour of humans transcends the behaviour of one individual. At criticality, every human is interacting in complex ways with all of their neighbours. The action of one human on the global sphere can induce action in thousands of others.

All this to say, we can’t predict when, but there will be that one grain of sand that brings the landslide change that will topple the best laid plans of mice and men. 

Keep your joy.

(Research and ideas taken from: Prechter, Robert R. The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics. New Classics Library, 2002.)

Anne Milne is an every Sunday blogger, unless it’s a holiday weekend. Or summertime. 

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